Vientiane: Speaking at the seminar 'Strengthening Economic Resilience amid Geoeconomic Challenges,' jointly organized by the Australian Embassy in Laos and the Lao Academy of Social and Economic Sciences (LASES) in Vientiane on June 17, 2026, Professor Warr highlighted the severe economic implications of ongoing disruptions in global oil supplies. The crisis has led to a significant surge in crude oil prices, rising from around US$60 to over US$100 per barrel, posing substantial challenges for oil-importing nations like Laos.
According to Lao News Agency, Professor Warr emphasized the critical role of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 percent of the global oil supply is transported. Any prolonged disruption in this region represents a considerable threat to global energy markets. The resulting increase in fuel prices is expected to escalate transportation costs and exert additional inflationary pressures throughout the region.
Professor Warr further discussed the repercussions on the agricultural sector, noting that escalating energy costs have driven international urea fertilizer prices up by nearly 80 percent. This increase in production costs for essential crops could potentially trigger further hikes in global food prices.
In the context of Laos, he pointed out the nation's difficulties due to its constrained fiscal space and substantial external debt burden. These factors limit the government's ability to mitigate rising import costs through subsidies or other forms of support.
The seminar also reviewed policy measures undertaken across ASEAN countries. While some nations have implemented fuel subsidies or price stabilization initiatives, others have opted for limited tax relief. Professor Warr warned that broad subsidies could become fiscally unsustainable and recommended that any government intervention be precisely targeted.
Looking forward, he underscored the significance of bolstering economic resilience and enhancing energy security. He acknowledged, however, that the global transition to renewable energy would not eliminate dependence on petroleum in the near future.